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i will give you nevada as your best of the battleground states. what's your worst? what are you most worried about? >> well, you know, john, somebody was quoted yesterday as saying that's like choosing between our children. >> so choose. >> we are tied or -- i'm not going to do that. we're tied or ahead in every single battleground state. certainly some of them are tighter than others. north carolina is extremely tight. but we're pleased with where we are going into election day. we have advantage on the early vote. we've done significant work with voter registration in that state. we're close in florida. again, significant advantage on early vote. and done a lot of work on voter registration. >> can i run that through the universal political translator and say you're most worried about north carolina and florida? >> those are your words. >> let me bring in david gergen. he's also got a question. >> stephanie, good to see you. tell us what three things we should be looking for tomorrow night as a sense of which way it's going. what are you going to be looking for? >
i will give you nevada as your best of the battleground states. what's your worst? what are you most worried about? >> well, you know, john, somebody was quoted yesterday as saying that's like choosing between our children. >> so choose. >> we are tied or -- i'm not going to do that. we're tied or ahead in every single battleground state. certainly some of them are tighter than others. north carolina is extremely tight. but we're pleased with where we are going into election...
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most pros will tell you, nevada likely to go the president's way. if i give him nevada, iowa and wisconsin, 259/206. what does governor romney have to do? he must win the state of florida. tonight the democrats say we think we're still in play. again, if you give them truth serum, which ones are they likely to lose, they put florida high on the list. the obama operation says watch us turn out the vote tomorrow. let's assume it stays with its normal republican dna, we'll keep it there. virginia is a must win for governor romney. this is another state where the obama campaign says we are wired on the ground. we can do it. the key will be the northern vir suburbs. for the sake of argument, i know democrats are getting mad at me, i'm going to give it to governor romney. if we do that, he gets florida, virginia, this could shall a decisive state. for the sake of argument, the obama campaign says we have this state. watch what happens tomorrow, especially in evangelical areas. i'm going to this hypothetical to show you how close this would be give it to t
most pros will tell you, nevada likely to go the president's way. if i give him nevada, iowa and wisconsin, 259/206. what does governor romney have to do? he must win the state of florida. tonight the democrats say we think we're still in play. again, if you give them truth serum, which ones are they likely to lose, they put florida high on the list. the obama operation says watch us turn out the vote tomorrow. let's assume it stays with its normal republican dna, we'll keep it there. virginia...
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Nov 3, 2012
11/12
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we think we have a good shot at virginia, new hampshire, new mexico, nevada. that's the pathway to victory for john mccain. >> see how all those states were blue? his confident predictions that john mccain was going to win all those states in 2008 were wrong in every single instance. they lost every single one of those states. even though it seemed like he was going to win all of those states the day before the election. he didn't say like he felt they were going to win. he said they have the polling data that showed they were going to win and they did not win in any of those states. this is just part of the way the game is played. it's just bluffing. and that is important context for understanding what's going on in the last four days of the campaign. there are patterns to how presidential elections end. some of the same stuff happens every four years. specifically, in 1992, the republican candidate was poppy bush. he went and campaigned in pennsylvania. and then the next day, he lost pennsylvania. the next election, 1996, bob dole. right before the election,
we think we have a good shot at virginia, new hampshire, new mexico, nevada. that's the pathway to victory for john mccain. >> see how all those states were blue? his confident predictions that john mccain was going to win all those states in 2008 were wrong in every single instance. they lost every single one of those states. even though it seemed like he was going to win all of those states the day before the election. he didn't say like he felt they were going to win. he said they have...
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Nov 4, 2012
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some would argue that michigan and nevada should have been leaning obama. we have a very close election. it will be decided on election night with a bunch of potential surprises. >>chris: you have a white board? karl: on the 3rd of november in 2008, president obama was at or above 50 percent in seven of the 13 battleground states that year. in the same states this year, same day, president obama is at 50 percent, not above 50 percent but 50 percent in two, wisconsin and nevada, and wisconsin, he is only at 50 percent because there is one poll that has an eight-point lead. we have gone from cruising to victory in 2008 to a tight, tight, tight race in 2012. >>chris: a last question, what do you make of romney going to pennsylvania and what do you make of obama with last minute ad buys in florida and virginia. who is serious? who is bluffing in. >> they are all serious. president obama has difficulty in florida and virginia, where the clear politics average goes to romney and pennsylvania is in play. if president obama was comfortable with pennsylvania he what
some would argue that michigan and nevada should have been leaning obama. we have a very close election. it will be decided on election night with a bunch of potential surprises. >>chris: you have a white board? karl: on the 3rd of november in 2008, president obama was at or above 50 percent in seven of the 13 battleground states that year. in the same states this year, same day, president obama is at 50 percent, not above 50 percent but 50 percent in two, wisconsin and nevada, and...
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what do you make of colorado, nevada, iowa, new hampshire? >> well, look, the easiest way to look at this is even if you look at the real clear politics average which includes a lot of the goofy quinnipiac poles and marist polls. the republicans are winning, indiana,, north carolina, virginia and florida. in fact, if you take a look at that all of the mccain states plus 30s that they are waning and i do think they are going to win, republicans are going to win all four of these states. is they are at 248. then you look at ohio which i think the early vote numbers are clear indication of of what is going to happen in ohio. that s another 18 electoral votes. and then colorado which is, you know, is in the rcp average just under water, 9/10 of a percent. but that is largely because of a couple of outliar polls that have huge numbers more democrats than republicans. i think we are going to win colorado and that gets you 275. and we are going to pick up out of ohio, new hampshire, nevada or minnesota, pennsylvania or wisconsin we are going to pick
what do you make of colorado, nevada, iowa, new hampshire? >> well, look, the easiest way to look at this is even if you look at the real clear politics average which includes a lot of the goofy quinnipiac poles and marist polls. the republicans are winning, indiana,, north carolina, virginia and florida. in fact, if you take a look at that all of the mccain states plus 30s that they are waning and i do think they are going to win, republicans are going to win all four of these states. is...
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Nov 5, 2012
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places like nevada a little bit in northern virginia, florida. i think one of the big stories when this is all over is going to be that demographic story, how much this country's changed in the last four years. and if romney loses, i think a big debate in the republican party is going to be over how they win the white house again, given their -- up until now anyway, their troubles with the hispanic community. i think romney's numbers among hispanics and other minorities are going to be a big story after election day. >> if romney loses, they will look at the recriminations -- >> if he loses. >> what would be the debate in the democratic party if the president of the united states were to lose? >> when either side loses, liberals say the democrat wasn't liberal enough. conservatives always say he wasn't conservative enough. i think a lot of democrats would say, one, that obama missed his opportunity in 2009, wasn't aggressive enough on the economy, shouldn't have pursued health care. i don't know if that's the correct analysis. but a lot of people
places like nevada a little bit in northern virginia, florida. i think one of the big stories when this is all over is going to be that demographic story, how much this country's changed in the last four years. and if romney loses, i think a big debate in the republican party is going to be over how they win the white house again, given their -- up until now anyway, their troubles with the hispanic community. i think romney's numbers among hispanics and other minorities are going to be a big...
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. >> nevada i take more votes away from obama. in north carolina, michigan, i take more votes away from romney. i think it's really equal on both sides. >> cenk: now wait until i show you the numbers how much different it is when you include a third-party candidate in which no polling was done until two days ago. oh boy, and the elbow of the day, that's republican-on-republican crime. everybody, it's go time. >> romney: i'm mitt romney. i believe in america. and i'm running for president. >> an underdog senator. nobody thought that he had a chance. now he's the president. >> romney: that is quite an orlando welcome. we ask that you stay at this all the way until victory on tuesday night. >> i stood with president obama four years ago and i'm proud to be standing here with him today. [ singing ] >> every day i'm concerned about women's rights and health issues. i don't need to tell you about the dangers to roe versus wade. >> tomorrow we begin a new tomorrow. >> we know what change looks like then ♪ ohio ♪ make some noise ♪ >
. >> nevada i take more votes away from obama. in north carolina, michigan, i take more votes away from romney. i think it's really equal on both sides. >> cenk: now wait until i show you the numbers how much different it is when you include a third-party candidate in which no polling was done until two days ago. oh boy, and the elbow of the day, that's republican-on-republican crime. everybody, it's go time. >> romney: i'm mitt romney. i believe in america. and i'm running...
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poll numbers we've been seeing, we're going to see that latinos are going to hold florida, virginia, nevada and colorado. what we are seeing is very high support for the president. so what we are seeing is about 74% of latinos saying they are either certain to or very likely to vote for the president and the worst case scenario, 64% of latinos are saying they are certain to vote for the president. is so with that, you are going to secure those states and don't forget, there is still a smattering of latinos in north carolina, wisconsin and iowa. 3%, 4%, but when it is so close, that 3% of mobilized latino turnout is going to make the difference. >> on, let's talk about pennsylvania because when we bring up close, pennsylvania right now, 47 to 47 in a state that normally, the president would have a comfortable lead in. stephanie cutter said on "morning joe" today that it's not realistic that governor romney should make a play for pennsylvania or even think about winning pennsylvania. what's your reaction to that? >> i'm glad they're giving governor romney advice because if he follows the advi
poll numbers we've been seeing, we're going to see that latinos are going to hold florida, virginia, nevada and colorado. what we are seeing is very high support for the president. so what we are seeing is about 74% of latinos saying they are either certain to or very likely to vote for the president and the worst case scenario, 64% of latinos are saying they are certain to vote for the president. is so with that, you are going to secure those states and don't forget, there is still a...
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iowa and nevada have been put away. i don't think new hampshire and wisconsin have. but i think that's reflect in that poll. the second that's occurred is every single poll i've seen shows more optimism about the economy than there was a month ago. not people aren't off the charts mind you, but a third of the people think the economy is in good shape. another 20% think it's getting in better shape and those are better numbers than the summer. >> rose: let me ask about florida, john harris, and pennsylvania. >> it looks like florida is most likely in romney's camp. not certain. it seems to me that if obama wins florida he's going to win a bunch of other states and we'll have a map that looks more like 2008 than we've been thinking this last month or so where hi would win most of the state he is won in 2008 minus north carolina and indiana. that's an early night for us all. althoughs pennsylvania better than i do. i don't think it's been awe thenltally in play. i think there was a series of head fakes going on but that's never been a central battleground. >> rose: mark
iowa and nevada have been put away. i don't think new hampshire and wisconsin have. but i think that's reflect in that poll. the second that's occurred is every single poll i've seen shows more optimism about the economy than there was a month ago. not people aren't off the charts mind you, but a third of the people think the economy is in good shape. another 20% think it's getting in better shape and those are better numbers than the summer. >> rose: let me ask about florida, john...
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in would argue that mash -- michigan and nevada should be leaning obama before last week. we have a very close election. and it is going to be decided on election night with -- with a bunch of potential surprises. >> chris: you have a white board. >> think about this. on the third of november, 2008, president obamma was at or above 50% in 7 of the 13 states that year. in those same state this is year, on same date, 4 years later, he is 50%, not above, but 50% in just two, wisconsin and nev dismef and wisconsin, he is only at 50% because there is 1 pole, an outliwer an 8-point lead. we have gone from cruise into victory in 2008, to a tight, tight, tight race in 2012. >> chris: lanlast question. what do you make of romney going to pennsylvania today? what do you make of obama with last-minute ad buys in florida and virginia? who's got in wind at the back? who is serious? hois bluffing? >> they are all serious and they are not bluffing. president obama has difficulty in florida and virginia two, states where the real clear politics average goes to romney. and pennsylvania has
in would argue that mash -- michigan and nevada should be leaning obama before last week. we have a very close election. and it is going to be decided on election night with -- with a bunch of potential surprises. >> chris: you have a white board. >> think about this. on the third of november, 2008, president obamma was at or above 50% in 7 of the 13 states that year. in those same state this is year, on same date, 4 years later, he is 50%, not above, but 50% in just two, wisconsin...
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ohio, wisconsin, nevada. are we at a point where the only hope for romney there's something wrong in the method oflg these state polls? >> i think we're about at that point opinion he has a couple of days left for him to make a come back. there isn't a single poll, a single nonpartisan poll in ohio, wisconsin or nevada that shows romney in the lead. and, yes, you know the polls have been wrong before and it's conceivable that things can be off. you can ask about sharon engel if polls are right. the overwhelming majority of the time when someone holds a lead of this magnitude, this consistently, they wine up winning. and, you know, there are reasons to think the polls could be off. it's tough to talk to people on cell phones. assumptions about turn out are more important than ever. but, yeah, you're right i think the polls have to be wrong at this state level. >> polls ask who are you going to vote for but there's data around polls who do you think will win and that's extraordinarily predictive. why is that qu
ohio, wisconsin, nevada. are we at a point where the only hope for romney there's something wrong in the method oflg these state polls? >> i think we're about at that point opinion he has a couple of days left for him to make a come back. there isn't a single poll, a single nonpartisan poll in ohio, wisconsin or nevada that shows romney in the lead. and, yes, you know the polls have been wrong before and it's conceivable that things can be off. you can ask about sharon engel if polls are...
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want to jump to nevada, another critical battleground state. has six electoral votes this time around. it's actually won more than it had back in 2008. president obama won nevada back then, but republicans have actually carried the state in eight of the last 11 presidential elections. miguel marquez is in vegas, and miguel, the president seems to be holding his lead in a state. you see him leading mitt romney 50%-44% back in mav nevada. spent a lot of there. voting for the president by 76%. are we seeing that same type of support this go round? >> it's not entirely clear, but we are seeing a lot of democratic support in the -- for the president in early voting. that ended on friday here in nevada, so now both these campaigns are up to the few voters. it's a small slice. perhaps as many as 70% or 80% of voters across nevada have voted. latino voters in clark and in washu county up in the northwest part of the state are going to be critical to the president's game plan. in washu it's interesting. that's a republican-leaning county, and the democr
want to jump to nevada, another critical battleground state. has six electoral votes this time around. it's actually won more than it had back in 2008. president obama won nevada back then, but republicans have actually carried the state in eight of the last 11 presidential elections. miguel marquez is in vegas, and miguel, the president seems to be holding his lead in a state. you see him leading mitt romney 50%-44% back in mav nevada. spent a lot of there. voting for the president by 76%. are...
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republican lance gilman, the newly elected county commissioner of nevada's story county happens to be the owner of mustang ranch. that's right, the infamous brothel out there. nevada, just to clear things up, is the only state with legalized prostitution, and gilman just became the first such owner to make his way to winning an election of public office. according to the county commissioner-elect himself, people want to focus on the brothel issue. i have had a wonderful 43 year record of business success that i bring to the commission. it is kind of a hard issue to ignore. gilman, by the way, calls himself a dyed in the wool republican who loves american values. >>> finally, last week steve schmidt said on "meet the press" that a lot of swing voters think of the republican party as one of loons and wackos. this is a republican talking. mike murphy, another republican strategist, just weighed in on "meet the press." here he is. >> this is an existential crisis for the republican party, and we have to have a brutal discussion about it. we alienate young voters because of gay marriage, w
republican lance gilman, the newly elected county commissioner of nevada's story county happens to be the owner of mustang ranch. that's right, the infamous brothel out there. nevada, just to clear things up, is the only state with legalized prostitution, and gilman just became the first such owner to make his way to winning an election of public office. according to the county commissioner-elect himself, people want to focus on the brothel issue. i have had a wonderful 43 year record of...
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i think it will bes hispanic states near me, colorado, nevada. >> i will take the florida. >> let me ask you one last question do you think reagan said with fewer americans working when they took office 1-6 in poverty 17 million more of americans on today stamps. 6 trillion in debt. are you going to say we were better off than a year ago. the president has created 5.7 nobs after a month mt. 800,000 emotion of god. >> i thing you would use the receipt tick of resing voting. sploetling. i appreciate you being hasn'ter, i hough >> not many democrats appear they are in trouble. they have no card left to play but the race card for some. the president's supporters are trying to hide behind their so-called jokes. he is making controversial comments. he said he was joking and kidding. lathes example comes to us courtesy of the million dollar donor to barack obama bill maher. >>> i would just like to say for any one thinking about voting for mitt romney, if you are thinking about it i would like to make this one place. black people know who you are. they will come after you. kidding. >> i am
i think it will bes hispanic states near me, colorado, nevada. >> i will take the florida. >> let me ask you one last question do you think reagan said with fewer americans working when they took office 1-6 in poverty 17 million more of americans on today stamps. 6 trillion in debt. are you going to say we were better off than a year ago. the president has created 5.7 nobs after a month mt. 800,000 emotion of god. >> i thing you would use the receipt tick of resing voting....
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let's say florida and michigan and ohio and nevada and the list goes on. >> what are the chances of the sportscaster guy asking him a tough fema question on monday if he doesn't? >> i would say near zero. and the tax return questions i guess, he is probably not going to get from the sportscaster. >> it is the place to go. it is the place where you can have a simulation of an inner view without getting any of the questions. when you build a campaign on distraction it becomes more difficult. it is not new that the politicians try to control the encounters. what we have learned though, he does it more often with more severity than anyone else. there is a pool and that is a group of reporters that go to everything. and they issue pool reports as you well know from your time in politics. mitt romney tried to cut reporters in the pool out of covering his fundraisers. there was such disastrous push back from the press that they had to walk that back. what was that about? it was weird. no republican had tried to do that. now, when they see the types of things that they said. it is wrong. >> the
let's say florida and michigan and ohio and nevada and the list goes on. >> what are the chances of the sportscaster guy asking him a tough fema question on monday if he doesn't? >> i would say near zero. and the tax return questions i guess, he is probably not going to get from the sportscaster. >> it is the place to go. it is the place where you can have a simulation of an inner view without getting any of the questions. when you build a campaign on distraction it becomes...
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those, of course, are iowa and nevada. the "real clear politics" polling average in iowa right now shows president obama ahead by two and in nevada president obama ahead by 2.7. then later in the night at 11:00 p.m. and then 1:00 a.m., we'll have california, hawaii, idaho, oregon, washington, and then the last poll closing in alaska. unless this is a very strange night, those races will be interesting for governors races and senate and house races and state issues, but not necessarily for the presidency. unless things go very, very differently than expected to go. this is how your election viewing is going to unfold hour by hour on tuesday night. if you just exclude the states for the presidential race where everybody pretty much knows exactly how it's going to go and just the states where there is some question as to what's going to happen, here is a clip and save thing for you about these states. the battlegrounds. all right? states that you know are going to be important and everybody thinks they're going to be close. t
those, of course, are iowa and nevada. the "real clear politics" polling average in iowa right now shows president obama ahead by two and in nevada president obama ahead by 2.7. then later in the night at 11:00 p.m. and then 1:00 a.m., we'll have california, hawaii, idaho, oregon, washington, and then the last poll closing in alaska. unless this is a very strange night, those races will be interesting for governors races and senate and house races and state issues, but not necessarily...
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i think it will bes hispanic states near me, colorado, nevada. >> i will take the florida. >> let me ask you one last question do you think reagan said with fewer americans working when they took office 1-6 in poverty 17 million more of americans on today stamps. 6 trillion in debt. are you going to say we were better off than a year ago. the president has created 5.7 nobs after a month mt. 800,000 emotion of god. >> i thing you would use the receipt tick of resing voting. sploetling. i appreciate you being hasn'ter, i hough [ dennis ] it only took two minutes for this town to be destroyed. to a little girl who lived through it, this is more than a teddy bear. it's a step towards normal. it's why allstate catastrophe teams not only have hot coffee and help for grownups... they've also handed out more than twelve thousand teddy bears to kids. people come first... everything else is second. that's allstate's stand. are you in good hands? huh? you're not my dad ahhhhh!!! hey honey, back feels better, little dancing tonight, you and me? hey boy, you wanna go for a walk? dr. scholl's pro
i think it will bes hispanic states near me, colorado, nevada. >> i will take the florida. >> let me ask you one last question do you think reagan said with fewer americans working when they took office 1-6 in poverty 17 million more of americans on today stamps. 6 trillion in debt. are you going to say we were better off than a year ago. the president has created 5.7 nobs after a month mt. 800,000 emotion of god. >> i thing you would use the receipt tick of resing voting....
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. >> and i have nevada in there. you live on the border of nevada and california. demographically gone for the republicans right now? >> this is a state that republicans should have won if we had the same hispanic turnout of the vote percentage under president bush, under john mccain. mitt romney would be ahead in nevada. it's not the case. president obama is going to win nevada. >> anybody here think the president will lose iowa? >> i think he's going to win iowa. and i changed my opinion on that. i thought he was going to lose iowa. >> you believe iowa. where do you fall? >> the president. >> look what this does here. this puts -- we put it up to 259 so th so then he's is 11 away. anybody thinks he's going to win florida? so you give romney this, florida. colorado, i think it will be the closest state in the country. >> i agree. >> where does it go? >> romney. >> romney wins. >> really close but romney. >> it might all come down to ohio. >> it may. and virginia we have sitting he here. so this could mean to me as a realistic scenario and i won't make you force th
. >> and i have nevada in there. you live on the border of nevada and california. demographically gone for the republicans right now? >> this is a state that republicans should have won if we had the same hispanic turnout of the vote percentage under president bush, under john mccain. mitt romney would be ahead in nevada. it's not the case. president obama is going to win nevada. >> anybody here think the president will lose iowa? >> i think he's going to win iowa. and i...
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i think it will bes hispanic states near me, colorado, nevada. >> i will take the florida. >> let me ask you one last question do you think reagan said with fewer americans working when they took office 1-6 in poverty 17 million more of americans on today stamps. 6 trillion in debt. are you going to say we were better off than a year ago. the president has created 5.7 nobs after a month mt. 800,000 emotion of god. >> i thing you would use the receipt tick of resing voting. sploetling. i appreciate you being hasn'ter, i hough you are ka dual support. it gives us 5x the rewards on our internet, phone charges and cable, plus at office supply stores. rewards we put right back into our business. this is the only thing we've ever wanted to do and ink helps us do it. make your mark with ink from chase. new pink lemonade 5-hour energy? 5-hour energy supports the avon foundation for women breast cancer crusade. so i can get the energized feeling i need and support a great cause? i'm sold. pink lemonade 5-hour energy? yeah and a portion of every sale goes to the avon foundation for women breas
i think it will bes hispanic states near me, colorado, nevada. >> i will take the florida. >> let me ask you one last question do you think reagan said with fewer americans working when they took office 1-6 in poverty 17 million more of americans on today stamps. 6 trillion in debt. are you going to say we were better off than a year ago. the president has created 5.7 nobs after a month mt. 800,000 emotion of god. >> i thing you would use the receipt tick of resing voting....
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nevada elects its first african-american congressman this year. america gets our first openly gay united states senator. america gets our first-ever asian american woman senator from hawaii. her seat in the house, i should note, gets filled by this woman, a democratic iraq war veteran. time going to tell you right now that her name is tulsy gabboard, because she is on the fast track to being very famous some day. speaking of iraq war veterans, tammy duckworth, veteran helicopter pilot, lost both her legs in congress, she is going to congress and sending home the opponent who mocked her for her war record, joe walsh. california relaxed its three strikes you're out law and rejected a law to cripple the power of unions. criminal legalization of marijuana was approved in washington and montana. sherrod brown and jon tester both won, held on to their seats. democrats won a senate seat in north dakota, of all places, a seat that nobody thought they could win. all of these states that had this hugely aggressive total republican takeover from the 2010 ele
nevada elects its first african-american congressman this year. america gets our first openly gay united states senator. america gets our first-ever asian american woman senator from hawaii. her seat in the house, i should note, gets filled by this woman, a democratic iraq war veteran. time going to tell you right now that her name is tulsy gabboard, because she is on the fast track to being very famous some day. speaking of iraq war veterans, tammy duckworth, veteran helicopter pilot, lost...
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Nov 5, 2012
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we hope to get on john raulson out of nevada. this is interesting for many reasons, and i wanted to talk specific alally about nevada wh the foreclosures are high and unemployment rate is high. latinos in that state could help president obama win it in a significant way. let's see what we see in regarding the white vote and in a key state like nevada the latino vote being the difference. >> if everybody recalls the election of 2010, when reid was running against sharon inkeningle, all the polls showed engel was ahead by significant margins. what happened was at the end of the day when you looked at the scorecard, latinos went in favor to harry reid 9-10. that was because sharon engel's campaign was so egregious when it came to the latino votes. pollsters feel that la tyne notices won't turn out, and a lot of working class latinos are cell phones. this is the dreary part of polling. you often miss a big swath of potential when it comes to voting to the new voter, which is not only latinos but women and youth. what we're going to s
we hope to get on john raulson out of nevada. this is interesting for many reasons, and i wanted to talk specific alally about nevada wh the foreclosures are high and unemployment rate is high. latinos in that state could help president obama win it in a significant way. let's see what we see in regarding the white vote and in a key state like nevada the latino vote being the difference. >> if everybody recalls the election of 2010, when reid was running against sharon inkeningle, all the...